Mobile revenue to also grow.
The total fixed communications service revenue in the Philippines is expected to increase at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0 per cent from $US3.6bn in 2021 to $US4.7bn in 2026, mainly driven by the strong growth in fixed broadband segment according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
An analysis of GlobalData’s Philippines Fixed Communication Forecast Model reveals that the fixed voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 1.6 per cent over 2021-2026, owing to the drop in circuit switched subscriptions and significant decline in fixed voice average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) levels.
Fixed broadband services revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 6.3 per cent during 2021-2026, driven by the healthy growth in broadband subscriptions and rising broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “DSL lines will remain the dominant fixed broadband technology with 36.7 per cent share of the total fixed broadband subscriptions in 2021, but will gradually lose its market share over the forecast period. Fiber broadband lines, on the other hand, will increase at a robust CAGR of 17.2 per cent over the forecast period, supported by the government and operator investments on fiber network infrastructure and FTTH service expansions.
“PLDT will lead the fixed voice services segment in terms of subscriptions through 2026 supported by its strong position in the growing VoIP service segment. The operator will also top the fixed broadband services market, by subscriptions, supported by its strong position in DSL and FTTH service lines. The operator plans to invest an additional CAPEX of around PHP92bn ($US1.9bn) in 2021 and seeks to upgrade and expand its fiber broadband network and gain from wider coverage of its FTTH services.”
The total mobile services revenue in the Philippines is set to increase at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6 per cent from $US4.1bn in 2021 to $US5.4bn in 2026, mainly due to the rising adoption of mobile data services, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
According to Global Data’s Philippines Mobile Broadband Forecast Pack, mobile data revenue will grow at the fastest CAGR of 6.6 per cent between 2021 and 2026, due to growing 4G subscriptions and the planned rollout of 5G services. Mobile voice revenues will increase at a relatively slow CAGR of 3.2 per cent over the same period as voice (average revenue per user) ARPU decreases further.
The average monthly mobile data usage is forecast to increase from 3.7 GB in 2021 to about 4.8 GB in 2026, driven by the growing consumption of high-bandwidth online video services and social media content over smartphones.
Harika Damidi, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “4G subscriptions will surpass 3G in 2021, driven by the ongoing 4G/LTE network expansions and increase in the availability of 4G-enabled smartphones. 5G services, on the other hand, will account for 22.5 per cent share of the total mobile subscriptions by 2026 end.
The Philippines mobile communications market has been a virtual duopoly until recently, with Globe and PLDT as major service providers. Dito Telecommunity (Dito), which got license in July 2019, commenced its operations in March 2021 to become the third player to operate in the country’s mobile services market.
Damidi concludes: “Dito is attracting customers through limited period promotional plans with unlimited texts and free 300 minutes of calls to other networks, and unlimited texts and calls on same network as a part of its 10GB and 25GB plans. Globe, however, is expected to retain its leadership through the forecast period supported by its strong focus on network expansion and modernization.”